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RISK
MANAGEMENT
Markets and Business
Cycle
In Brazil, the Gerdau Group has expanded its business through
exports. In 2002, these were responsible for 20.7% of sales
volume, allowing the Company to maintain its level of activity
and increase the flow of foreign currency into the country.
During this year, presidential elections brought a period
of great volatility for the financial markets, also affected
by the climate of uncertainty regarding other economies around
the world. As a consequence, the value of the Brazilian real
against the US dollar varied 52.3% over the year, while the
interest rate, managed following an orthodox model, was raised
to 25% to keep inflation under control.
The devaluation of the Brazilian currency resulted in a 77%
increase in the volume of exports by the Gerdau Group. This
added demand was met through greater use of production capacity
at the mills, without straying from the focus on servicing
the domestic market.
For 2003, the Brazilian Central Bank predicts growth of 1.95%
in the country’s GDP, superior to the 1.5% achieved
in 2002. This should be reflected favorably in the demand
for long steel products, the sector in which the Gerdau Group’s
activities are concentrated.
In the first half of 2002, the Group’s operations in
Argentina were restructured, transforming the SIPSA rolling
mill in San Luis province into a wholly-owned subsidiary of
Sipar, in which the Gerdau Group holds a 38.2% stake. This
new structure allows for the maximization of business opportunities
and strengthens the results of the two companies.
The International Monetary Fund’s expectation is that
Chile will experience economic growth of around 3.1% in 2003,
which should sustain the strong demand for steel products
in the region. The IMF expects Argentina to experience GDP
growth after four years of recession, while the tendency of
the Uruguayan economy is to reverse its negative performance.
In 2002, the United States and Canada experienced GDP growth
of 2.4% and 3.4%, respectively. The coming year promises reductions
in these levels.
The expectation is that steel imports to North America will
continue to decline as a result of the weaker dollar and increased
steel prices on the international market. In this context,
Gerdau’s operations should experience improvements as
a result of internal adjustments and the implementation of
systems for improved customer services and reduced operating
and logistics costs.
Foreign Exchange
The internationalization of the Gerdau Group has resulted,
over the years, in a natural protection of assets against
exchange rate variations. The geographical distribution of
its assets and the generation of revenues in a number of countries
minimize the effects of fluctuating currency values, reducing
their impact on the balance sheet.
In the consolidated results, the investments abroad counterbalance
the negative effects of the devaluation of the Brazilian real
on US dollar-denominated financial liabilities in Brazil.
The opposite effect occurs when the real appreciates against
the dollar, reducing the value of foreign investments.
Exports and financial swaps, in which the exchange risk is
transferred to Brazil’s currency risk, have also contributed
to reducing the impacts of exchange rate variations on results.
Financial Information
The Company’s assets are managed within a conservative
and defensive approach. With this focus, the Gerdau Group
has developed asset protection strategies, through the creation
and monitoring of indicators that are stricter than those
required by the financial market.
This process uses widely recognized indicators such as interest
cover ratio and total debt/total market capitalization.
Technology
The Group invests constantly in the modernization of its units.
This practice represents an average annual investment of US$
200 million, which allows Gerdau’s units to operate
with the most up-to-date technology available in their sectors.
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